The baseline scenario for air transport in Russia improved
Russian airlines’ passenger traffic is projected to be 121.3 million in 2030

The Russian government has introduced amendments to the comprehensive development program for the Russian air transport industry until the year 2030, which was initially ratified in June 2022. One year into the making, the authors have revised the target scenario for passenger traffic, which implies increased traffic targets for Russian airlines between now and 2030.
According to the amended base scenario, Russian airlines’ passenger traffic is set to climb from 95.2 million in 2022 to 121.3 million in 2030 – replacing the initial plan for 116.1 million. Even for the 2023 the target has increased by 2 million passengers – up to 103 million. Next year the industry is expected to serve 104.5 million passengers, up 2.3 million on the originally planned figure.
What is particularly peculiar is that international traffic targets have doubled, whereas domestic traffic numbers have been cut by seven to ten per cent, depending on the year. So whilst in the original program international traffic accounted for just 10 per cent of the entire volume, the new scenario paints a brighter picture of 20 per cent. Experts say, the new assessment is more realistic based on the result of the continuous de-registration of western-built aircraft.
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