Russia’s passenger traffic declines for first time since sanctions hit

:: Krasnoyarsk airport

Russia’s air transport sector recorded a fall in passenger numbers in 2025—the first decline since 2022, when Western sanctions cut off access to major international markets, aircraft, and technology. According to data released by Dmitry Yadrov, head of the Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya), the country’s airlines carried 108.5 million passengers last year, a drop of nearly 3% compared with 2024.

The downturn was driven primarily by a 4.1% contraction in domestic traffic, which reduced to 81.2 million passengers. Growth in international routes—which had expanded at double-digit rates in the two preceding years—slowed sharply to just 1.6%, reaching 27.4 million passengers, insufficient to offset the domestic slump.

The Ministry of Transport had initially projected 2025 traffic at 109.7 million, but revised its forecast downward by 2 million passengers in mid‑December. A ministry representative cited the inability to renew fleets under continuing sanctions and the “inevitable retirement of aircraft due to technical wear” as key factors.

Looking ahead, the agency forecasts a 2% recovery in 2026, with passenger numbers expected to reach 110.4 million. Yadrov pointed to two positive developments: the growth of domestic MRO capabilities, helping to keep existing aircraft operational longer, and the reopening of two major Black Sea airports in Gelendzhik and Krasnodar, both dormant since 2022.

Nevertheless, he cautioned that periodic airspace and airport restrictions across European part of Russia could push up to 1 million passengers toward ground transport in the coming year.