Russian airline passenger decline accelerates amid capacity shortage

:: ATO.ru

Passenger traffic among Russian airlines continues to decline at an increasing pace, with recent data from the Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsia) revealing a 2.6% year-on-year drop for the first nine months of 2025.

Carriers transported 83.7 million passengers during this period, compared to the same timeframe in 2024. The decline has accelerated progressively—from 1.8% after seven months to 2.2% after eight months, and now to 2.6% through September.

Notably, this decrease comes alongside a continued rise in aircraft load factors, which reached 89.6%—a clear indicator of constrained capacity within the Russian aviation sector.

Domestic traffic saw a more pronounced decline, falling 3.8% to 63.3 million passengers. International traffic for Russian operators grew only marginally, up 0.7% to 20.4 million passengers. This modest growth was driven entirely by routes to destinations outside the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which increased by 7.3% to 13.1 million passengers.

Rosaviatsia noted that total international passenger volume at Russian airports grew more significantly—by 8.2% to 38.5 million—highlighting the expanding role of foreign carriers in the market. Aeroflot Group CEO Sergey Alexandrovsky has expressed concern, estimating that foreign airlines will transport 23–24 million passengers to or from Russia in 2025.

The ranking of Russia’s top five airlines by passenger volume remains unchanged: Aeroflot, Pobeda, S7 Airlines, Rossiya, and Ural Airlines. Together, they accounted for 70.1% of total traffic, a share that increased by one percentage point over the past year.

Looking ahead, Rosaviatsia forecasts that Russian civil aviation will carry approximately 109.7 million passengers in 2025, a 2% decrease compared to 2024.