Grim outlook for Russian bizav deliveries
Russia and China are demonstrating growing demand for new business jets, reads the latest 10-year Global Business Aviation Outlook by international aerospace services and solutions provider Honeywell. Nevertheless, experts predict a decline in bizav sales in Russia and the CIS.
The document states that the aforementioned two countries plus Brazil remain the primary drivers behind the development of business aviation within the BRICS association of emerging national economies (which also includes India and South Africa).
Honeywell says the BRIC countries are now placing increasingly more orders for business aircraft after a decline in purchases observed in the previous years. Sales grew by 32% year-on-year in 2016, an increase well ahead of the global average, meaning a partial mitigation of the 10-year decline forecast earlier.
Honeywell estimates the global bizav market at 8,600 new aircraft through 2026, for a total value of $255 billion. Demand on the mature markets is showing relatively slow growth rates, but is compensated by short-term private aircraft purchases in developing countries. The demand is expected to peak in 2018-19, with long-range and medium business jets projected to sell particularly well (at 57% and 21% growth in sales, respectively).
Bombardier Aerospace in its forecast for 2016-2025 predicted similar growth figures, saying global business jet deliveries would amount to 8,300 airframes over said period, with 400 new airplanes to be sold to Russia and the CIS. This year the company did not publish its traditional market outlook.
Jetcraft Corporation sounds more pessimistic about new business jet sales in its 10-year market forecast. The company expects 7,879 airplanes, worth a total of $248 billion, to be delivered worldwide by 2025.
Gulfstream Aerospace is predicted to account for a hefty portion of all deliveries, at 30.6%, thanks to the expansion of its long-range jet family with the G500 and G600 models. The light aircraft segment will be mainly driven by sales of the newest Honda Jet business jet.
According to Jetcraft’s forecast, the Russian business aviation market will fare worse than those in China, Latin America, and India. The company predicts continued recession as economic problems are outrunning the decline in oil and gas prices, while growing taxes, spreading inefficiency of state-run companies, and the government’s inability to diversify the country’s resource-based economy have had a major negative effect on the business climate.
As a result, those who can purchase a business jet are leaving Russia for good, while the prospects of new high-income citizens and companies emerging are poor, Jetcraft suggests. The company believes that no more than 315 business jets will be delivered to Russia and the CIS in the next 10 years.
As of August 2017, the number of business jets operated globally stood at 21,389 units (the figure includes converted commercial airliners), as reported by JetNet Evolution, the world’s largest business aircraft sales portal. In 2016, 661 business jets were delivered globally for a total value of $24 billion, the lowest figure since the 2008 global financial crisis, when 1,317 aircraft were built. These figures are reported by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) based on data collected from 39 GA manufacturers. Russian airframers are not listed in GAMA’s review.
By Anna Nazarova
Russian Aviation Insider
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