UAC’s outlook for passenger aircraft in Russia gets more optimistic

Last year UAC predicted Russia would need 860 aircraft in the next 20 years, this year the company’s forecast grew up to 1,130 airplanes Last year UAC predicted Russia would need 860 aircraft in the next 20 years, this year the company’s forecast grew up to 1,130 airplanes (Photo by Sukhoi Civil Aircraft )

United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) has improved its demand forecast for new passenger aircraft in Russia. The company’s research states in the next 20 years, particularly in 2016-2035, the Russian market will require 1,130 new airliners. Last year’s forecast outlined a demand for only 860 units.

The updated forecast displays that Russian operators will account for acquisition of approximately 90 regional airliners with the capacity of under 60 seats. The demand for 61-120 seat aircraft (Russian Sukhoi Superjet 100 and its stretched version SSJ 100SV fall into the category) is estimated at the level of 200 units by 2035. Besides, the Russian market will demand for 710 narrow-body jets with the capacity of 120 seats and higher – segment of the Russian much anticipated MC-21. The demand for wide-bodies will comprise 130 aircraft (the Russian-Chinese two-aisle aircraft dubbed C929 is expected to enter market in 2026).

The rest of post-Soviet republics (Russia excluded) will need 230 new aircraft by 2035 including 30 aircraft in below 60 seats segment, 45 aircraft with 60-120 seat capacity, 115 singles-aisles with capacity of higher than 120 seats and 40 widebody airliners.

According to UAC, as of November 2016 Russian airlines operated 275 aircraft with passenger capacity of under 60 seats, 196 aircraft with 61 to 120 seat capacity, 462 narrow-bodies and 123 two-aisle aircraft.

UAC’s combine forecast for Russia and CIS is 1,380 aircraft whereas Boeing and Airbus estimate that the demand for the period of 2016-2035 will reach 1,170 and 1,220 new airplanes respectively.

UAC’s report with forecasted global demand of 41,250 new passenger aircraft by 2035 seems to be the most optimistic among other world airplane manufacturers. Boeing sees the number will comprise 39,620 units while Airbus and China’s COMAC, correspondingly, expect the figure to reach 33,070 and 39,948 aircraft.

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